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| Criterion |  Decision Making Three-Point Estimation |  Decision Making Delphi Method |  Product Discovery MVP Test Matrix |
|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | A single estimate for effort, time, or risk often looks too smooth for the real uncertainty behind it. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a Three-Point Estimate, Risk Range, and Assumption Notes. | When knowledge is distributed and direct dominance should be avoided, groups quickly fall under the sway of their opinion leaders. The Delphi Method gathers assessments iteratively and gradually brings expert judgments closer together. | When several minimal variants compete to answer the same question, it makes comparing and choosing between them cleaner. It separates problem, assumption, solution, and evidence. The result is captured as a Test Matrix and a Test Plan. |
Complexitydifferent | Medium | High | Medium |
Timedifferent | 10-30 min je Item | 1-4 Wochen | 45-75 min |
Participantsdifferent | 1-8 | 6-30 Experten | 2-8 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Async | Workshop |
Outputdifferent | Three-Point Estimate, Risk Range, Assumption Notes | Expert Forecast, Consensus Range, Assumption Notes | Test Matrix, Test Plan |
Tagsno overlap | EstimationUncertaintyForecasting | ForecastingExpertsDecisionStrategy | ExperimentsValidationDiscoveryOptions |
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