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| Criterion |  Decision Making Three-Point Estimation |  Decision Making Delphi Method |  Operations Causal Factor Analysis |
|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | A single estimate for effort, time, or risk often looks too smooth for the real uncertainty behind it. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a Three-Point Estimate, Risk Range, and Assumption Notes. | When knowledge is distributed and direct dominance should be avoided, groups quickly fall under the sway of their opinion leaders. The Delphi Method gathers assessments iteratively and gradually brings expert judgments closer together. | For an event with a complicated course, the method breaks down the contributing factors along the timeline. It shows how conditions, decisions, and reactions together produce a course of events. |
Complexitydifferent | Medium | High | High |
Timedifferent | 10-30 min je Item | 1-4 Wochen | 2-6 h |
Participantsdifferent | 1-8 | 6-30 Experten | 3-10 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Async | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Three-Point Estimate, Risk Range, Assumption Notes | Expert Forecast, Consensus Range, Assumption Notes | Event Timeline, Causal Factor Chart, Cause List, Corrective Actions |
Tagsno overlap | EstimationUncertaintyForecasting | ForecastingExpertsDecisionStrategy | CausalityIncidentRoot causeTimeline |
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