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| Criterion |  Decision Making Three-Point Estimation |  Decision Making Assumption Surfacing |  Decision Making Red Teaming |
|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | A single estimate for effort, time, or risk often looks too smooth for the real uncertainty behind it. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a Three-Point Estimate, Risk Range, and Assumption Notes. | Plans often contain assumptions that were never openly stated and remain dangerous precisely because of that. Assumption Surfacing makes these silent premises visible and prioritizes which of them carry the initiative or could sink it. | For strategic decisions with high reach, agreement and gut feeling are often not enough. Red teaming brings deliberate opposition into the situation and tests where a plan breaks under real counterarguments. |
Complexitydifferent | Medium | Low | High |
Timedifferent | 10-30 min je Item | 45-90 min | 1-4 h |
Participantsdifferent | 1-8 | 2-8 | 3-8 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop |
Outputdifferent | Three-Point Estimate, Risk Range, Assumption Notes | Assumption List, Critical Assumptions, Learning Plan | Challenge Findings, Risk Register, Mitigation Plan |
Tagsno overlap | EstimationUncertaintyForecasting | AssumptionsRiskDecisionDiscovery | RiskDecisionSensemaking |
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