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Criterion
Paper illustration for Three-Point Estimation.
Decision Making
Three-Point Estimation
Paper illustration of an assumption matrix with prioritized test cards
Decision Making
Assumption Surfacing
Paper illustration for Knowledge Mapping.
Knowledge Modeling
Knowledge Mapping
Purposedifferent
A single estimate for effort, time, or risk often looks too smooth for the real uncertainty behind it. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a Three-Point Estimate, Risk Range, and Assumption Notes.Plans often contain assumptions that were never openly stated and remain dangerous precisely because of that. Assumption Surfacing makes these silent premises visible and prioritizes which of them carry the initiative or could sink it.Knowledge Mapping makes knowledge, gaps, and transfer paths visible across a field. It fits when expertise should not just exist but also be findable and transferable.
Complexitydifferent
MediumLowMedium
Timedifferent
10-30 min je Item45-90 min1-3 h
Participantsdifferent
1-82-83-12
Formatdifferent
Workshop + asyncWorkshop + asyncWorkshop
Outputdifferent
Three-Point Estimate, Risk Range, Assumption NotesAssumption List, Critical Assumptions, Learning PlanKnowledge Map, Critical Knowledge Areas, Transfer Plan
Tagsno overlap
EstimationUncertaintyForecasting
AssumptionsRiskDecisionDiscovery
KnowledgeMappingRisk
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Often compared together

Methods with strong topical overlap with the current selection, not yet in the comparison.

Paper illustration for PERT Estimation.
Decision Making
PERT Estimation
Paper illustration of a calm four-quadrant Assumption Map with hypothesis cards and emphasis on important assumptions with little evidence.
Product Discovery
Assumption Mapping
Paper illustration of a Concept Map with concepts and labelled links
Knowledge Modeling
Concept Mapping
Anonymous individual judgments pass through feedback loops to form a distribution.
Decision Making
Delphi Method