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Criterion
Paper illustration for Three-Point Estimation.
Decision Making
Three-Point Estimation
Paper illustration of an assumption matrix with prioritized test cards
Decision Making
Assumption Surfacing
Context Map workspace showing the question, observations, and next decision.
Domain Modeling
Context Map
Purposedifferent
A single estimate for effort, time, or risk often looks too smooth for the real uncertainty behind it. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a Three-Point Estimate, Risk Range, and Assumption Notes.Plans often contain assumptions that were never openly stated and remain dangerous precisely because of that. Assumption Surfacing makes these silent premises visible and prioritizes which of them carry the initiative or could sink it.When several contexts need to talk to each other, it makes their relationships and dependencies legible. It helps sort integration pressure and responsibilities across system boundaries.
Complexitydifferent
MediumLowMedium
Timedifferent
10-30 min je Item45-90 min1-3 h
Participantsdifferent
1-82-82-8
Formatsame
Workshop + asyncWorkshop + asyncWorkshop + async
Outputdifferent
Three-Point Estimate, Risk Range, Assumption NotesAssumption List, Critical Assumptions, Learning PlanContext Map, Integration Patterns, Boundary Notes
Tagsno overlap
EstimationUncertaintyForecasting
AssumptionsRiskDecisionDiscovery
Domain-Driven DesignBoundariesStrategy
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Anonymous individual judgments pass through feedback loops to form a distribution.
Decision Making
Delphi Method
Paper illustration of DIBB with its method-specific working model.
Product Strategy
DIBB
Paper illustration for PERT Estimation.
Decision Making
PERT Estimation
Paper illustration of a calm four-quadrant Assumption Map with hypothesis cards and emphasis on important assumptions with little evidence.
Product Discovery
Assumption Mapping