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| Criterion |  Systems Thinking Theory of Change |  Systems Thinking VUCA Scan |  Business Strategy Scenario Planning |
|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | Theory of Change translates a desired impact into a traceable chain of change. It makes assumptions, intermediate goals, and measurement points visible before a program is rolled out at scale. | The VUCA Scan helps read difficult situations more precisely. Instead of treating unclarity as generally complicated, the method separates fast change, missing knowledge, systemic entanglement, and ambiguous interpretation. | Scenario Planning opens the view to several plausible futures instead of a single forecast. The method protects strategies from depending on too narrow an expected path. |
Complexitydifferent | High | Low | High |
Timedifferent | 2-6 h | 30-90 min | 0.5-2 Tage |
Participantsdifferent | 4-12 | 1-10 | 4-12 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop | Workshop + async | Workshop |
Outputdifferent | Theory of Change Map, Assumptions, Outcome Measures | VUCA Map, Response Options, Signal and Learning Plan | Scenario Set, Strategic Implications, Robust Options |
Tags1 shared | ImpactOutcomesSystems thinkingStrategy | SensemakingUncertaintyComplexityStrategyForesight | StrategyUncertaintyPlanning |
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