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Criterion
Paper illustration for Theory of Change
Systems Thinking
Theory of Change
Paper illustration of a calm four-quadrant Assumption Map with hypothesis cards and emphasis on important assumptions with little evidence.
Product Discovery
Assumption Mapping
Purposedifferent
Theory of Change translates a desired impact into a traceable chain of change. It makes assumptions, intermediate goals, and measurement points visible before a program is rolled out at scale.When assumptions still sit unordered in the room, it weighs uncertainty against leverage. It makes visible which hypotheses should be checked first.
Complexitydifferent
HighMedium
Timedifferent
2-6 h45-60 min
Participantsdifferent
4-122-8
Formatdifferent
WorkshopWorkshop + async
Outputdifferent
Theory of Change Map, Assumptions, Outcome MeasuresAssumption map, Test backlog, Risk ranking
Tagsno overlap
ImpactOutcomesSystems thinkingStrategy
AssumptionsRiskExperimentsValidation
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Often compared together

Methods with strong topical overlap with the current selection, not yet in the comparison.

Paper illustration of Riskiest Assumption Test with a method-specific labelled workspace.
Product Discovery
Riskiest Assumption Test
Paper illustration of an assumption matrix with prioritized test cards
Decision Making
Assumption Surfacing
Paper illustration of Business Model Stress Test with its method-specific working model.
Business Strategy
Business Model Stress Test