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| Criterion |  Product Discovery Test Card |  Decision Making Delphi Method |  Decision Making Assumption Surfacing |
|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | The Test Card turns a critical assumption into a testable claim and specifies in advance which result counts as success. | When knowledge is distributed and direct dominance should be avoided, groups quickly fall under the sway of their opinion leaders. The Delphi Method gathers assessments iteratively and gradually brings expert judgments closer together. | Plans often contain assumptions that were never openly stated and remain dangerous precisely because of that. Assumption Surfacing makes these silent premises visible and prioritizes which of them carry the initiative or could sink it. |
Complexitydifferent | Low | High | Low |
Timedifferent | 20-35 min | 1-4 Wochen | 45-90 min |
Participantsdifferent | 1-5 | 6-30 Experten | 2-8 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Async | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Test Card with a pre-set threshold | Expert Forecast, Consensus Range, Assumption Notes | Assumption List, Critical Assumptions, Learning Plan |
Tagsno overlap | ExperimentsValidationDiscoveryHypothesis | ForecastingExpertsDecisionStrategy | AssumptionsRiskDecisionDiscovery |
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