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Criterion
Paper illustration for Smoke Test.
Product Discovery
Smoke Test
Paper illustration of a calibrated five-by-five risk matrix with response cards.
Decision Making
Risk Matrix
Paper illustration of Riskiest Assumption Test with a method-specific labelled workspace.
Product Discovery
Riskiest Assumption Test
Purposedifferent
When demand only needs to be roughly verified, it tests interest with minimal effort. It measures whether people would take a next step at all.When a project faces many possible disruptions, it quickly becomes unclear which risks deserve attention first. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a Risk Matrix and a Top Risk List.When an idea hinges on one critical unknown, it prioritizes testing that exact piece of uncertainty first. It separates problem, assumption, solution, and evidence. The result is captured as a prioritized list of assumptions, a test plan, and a result report.
Complexitydifferent
LowLowMedium
Timedifferent
1-5 Tage30-60 min1-2 Wochen pro Iteration
Participantsdifferent
Nutzertraffic3-102-6
Formatdifferent
AsyncWorkshop + asyncWorkshop + async
Outputdifferent
Interest Metrics, Conversion Signal, Learning NoteRisk Matrix, Top Risk ListPrioritized Assumption List, Test Plan, Results Report
Tagsno overlap
ValidationExperimentsDemandGrowth
RiskDecisionPrioritizationAssessment
ExperimentsValidationDiscoveryAssumptions
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Methods with strong topical overlap with the current selection, not yet in the comparison.

Paper illustration of a calm four-quadrant Assumption Map with hypothesis cards and emphasis on important assumptions with little evidence.
Product Discovery
Assumption Mapping
Paper illustration of an assumption matrix with prioritized test cards
Decision Making
Assumption Surfacing
Paper illustration for Fake Door Test
Product Discovery
Fake Door Test