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Criterion
Paper illustration for Smoke Test.
Product Discovery
Smoke Test
Paper illustration for PDCA Cycle.
Operations
PDCA Cycle
Paper illustration of an assumption matrix with prioritized test cards
Decision Making
Assumption Surfacing
Purposedifferent
When demand only needs to be roughly verified, it tests interest with minimal effort. It measures whether people would take a next step at all.For an improvement that still has to prove itself in everyday work, the method runs it through small learning loops. It connects planning, checking, and standardization into a repeatable learning mode.Plans often contain assumptions that were never openly stated and remain dangerous precisely because of that. Assumption Surfacing makes these silent premises visible and prioritizes which of them carry the initiative or could sink it.
Complexitysame
LowLowLow
Timedifferent
1-5 Tage1 h bis mehrere Wochen45-90 min
Participantsdifferent
Nutzertraffic1-82-8
Formatdifferent
AsyncWorkshop + asyncWorkshop + async
Outputdifferent
Interest Metrics, Conversion Signal, Learning NotePDCA Log, Experiment Plan, Learning Outcome, Standard ChangeAssumption List, Critical Assumptions, Learning Plan
Tagsno overlap
ValidationExperimentsDemandGrowth
Continuous improvementLeanExperiments
AssumptionsRiskDecisionDiscovery
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Often compared together

Methods with strong topical overlap with the current selection, not yet in the comparison.

Paper illustration of a calm four-quadrant Assumption Map with hypothesis cards and emphasis on important assumptions with little evidence.
Product Discovery
Assumption Mapping
Paper illustration for Fake Door Test
Product Discovery
Fake Door Test
Paper illustration of Riskiest Assumption Test with a method-specific labelled workspace.
Product Discovery
Riskiest Assumption Test