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Criterion
Paper illustration for Smoke Test.
Product Discovery
Smoke Test
Paper illustration of Hooked Model with its method-specific working model.
Growth
Hooked Model
Paper illustration of an assumption matrix with prioritized test cards
Decision Making
Assumption Surfacing
Purposedifferent
When demand only needs to be roughly verified, it tests interest with minimal effort. It measures whether people would take a next step at all.The Hooked Model helps clarify engagement loops, user behavior, and experiments. It makes repeat behavior measurable and captures the result as a hooked loop, trigger map, and reward design.Plans often contain assumptions that were never openly stated and remain dangerous precisely because of that. Assumption Surfacing makes these silent premises visible and prioritizes which of them carry the initiative or could sink it.
Complexitydifferent
LowMediumLow
Timedifferent
1-5 TageMultiple workshops over several weeks45-90 min
Participantsdifferent
Nutzertraffic2-82-8
Formatdifferent
AsyncWorkshop + asyncWorkshop + async
Outputdifferent
Interest Metrics, Conversion Signal, Learning NoteHooked loop, Trigger map, Reward design, Ethics checkAssumption List, Critical Assumptions, Learning Plan
Tagsno overlap
ValidationExperimentsDemandGrowth
GrowthBehaviorRetention
AssumptionsRiskDecisionDiscovery
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Often compared together

Methods with strong topical overlap with the current selection, not yet in the comparison.

Paper illustration of a calm four-quadrant Assumption Map with hypothesis cards and emphasis on important assumptions with little evidence.
Product Discovery
Assumption Mapping
Paper illustration for Fake Door Test
Product Discovery
Fake Door Test
Paper illustration of Riskiest Assumption Test with a method-specific labelled workspace.
Product Discovery
Riskiest Assumption Test