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Criterion
Paper illustration for Smoke Test.
Product Discovery
Smoke Test
Paper illustration of a calm four-quadrant Assumption Map with hypothesis cards and emphasis on important assumptions with little evidence.
Product Discovery
Assumption Mapping
Paper illustration for Fault Tree Analysis.
Operations
Fault Tree Analysis
Purposedifferent
When demand only needs to be roughly verified, it tests interest with minimal effort. It measures whether people would take a next step at all.When assumptions still sit unordered in the room, it weighs uncertainty against leverage. It makes visible which hypotheses should be checked first.For a critical top event with several possible triggers, the method logically models failure paths. It makes visible which combinations of conditions can lead to damage.
Complexitydifferent
LowMediumHigh
Timedifferent
1-5 Tage45-60 min2-6 h
Participantsdifferent
Nutzertraffic2-83-8
Formatdifferent
AsyncWorkshop + asyncWorkshop + async
Outputdifferent
Interest Metrics, Conversion Signal, Learning NoteAssumption map, Test backlog, Risk rankingFault Tree, Critical Paths, Cause Hypotheses, Control Actions
Tagsno overlap
ValidationExperimentsDemandGrowth
AssumptionsRiskExperimentsValidation
RiskRoot causeSafety
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Methods with strong topical overlap with the current selection, not yet in the comparison.

Paper illustration for Fake Door Test
Product Discovery
Fake Door Test
Paper illustration of Riskiest Assumption Test with a method-specific labelled workspace.
Product Discovery
Riskiest Assumption Test
Paper illustration of an assumption matrix with prioritized test cards
Decision Making
Assumption Surfacing