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| Criterion |  Business Strategy Scenario Planning |  Decision Making Three-Point Estimation |  Decision Making Wideband Delphi |
|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | Scenario Planning opens the view to several plausible futures instead of a single forecast. The method protects strategies from depending on too narrow an expected path. | A single estimate for effort, time, or risk often looks too smooth for the real uncertainty behind it. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a Three-Point Estimate, Risk Range, and Assumption Notes. | A single opinion rarely holds up for planning when the future is genuinely uncertain. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as an Estimate Range, Assumption Log, and Expert Consensus Notes. |
Complexitydifferent | High | Medium | High |
Timedifferent | 0.5-2 Tage | 10-30 min je Item | 1-4 h or multiple rounds |
Participantsdifferent | 4-12 | 1-8 | 4-12 Experten |
Formatdifferent | Workshop | Workshop + async | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Scenario Set, Strategic Implications, Robust Options | Three-Point Estimate, Risk Range, Assumption Notes | Estimate Range, Assumption Log, Expert Consensus Notes |
Tagsno overlap | StrategyUncertaintyPlanning | EstimationUncertaintyForecasting | EstimationExpertsForecasting |
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