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Criterion
Scenario Planning method illustration showing its working structure
Business Strategy
Scenario Planning
Paper illustration for Smoke Test.
Product Discovery
Smoke Test
Paper illustration for Fake Door Test
Product Discovery
Fake Door Test
Purposedifferent
Scenario Planning opens the view to several plausible futures instead of a single forecast. The method protects strategies from depending on too narrow an expected path.When demand only needs to be roughly verified, it tests interest with minimal effort. It measures whether people would take a next step at all.When demand is still unclear, it measures interest in a feature before it is built. It separates real behavior from polite agreement and deliberately keeps build effort small.
Complexitydifferent
HighLowMedium
Timedifferent
0.5-2 Tage1-5 Tage1-5 Tage
Participantsdifferent
4-12NutzertrafficNutzertraffic
Formatdifferent
WorkshopAsyncAsync
Outputdifferent
Scenario Set, Strategic Implications, Robust OptionsInterest Metrics, Conversion Signal, Learning NoteClick Data, Interest Signal, Learning Decision
Tagsno overlap
StrategyUncertaintyPlanning
ValidationExperimentsDemandGrowth
ValidationExperimentsDemandDiscovery
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Methods with strong topical overlap with the current selection, not yet in the comparison.

Paper illustration of Experiment Canvas with a method-specific labelled workspace.
Product Discovery
Experiment Canvas
Paper illustration of a Learning Card with four fields for hypothesis, observation, insight, and action.
Product Discovery
Learning Card
Paper illustration of MVP Test Matrix with a method-specific labelled workspace.
Product Discovery
MVP Test Matrix