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| Criterion |  Business Strategy Scenario Planning |  Decision Making Delphi Method |  Product Discovery Assumption Mapping |
|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | Scenario Planning opens the view to several plausible futures instead of a single forecast. The method protects strategies from depending on too narrow an expected path. | When knowledge is distributed and direct dominance should be avoided, groups quickly fall under the sway of their opinion leaders. The Delphi Method gathers assessments iteratively and gradually brings expert judgments closer together. | When assumptions still sit unordered in the room, it weighs uncertainty against leverage. It makes visible which hypotheses should be checked first. |
Complexitydifferent | High | High | Medium |
Timedifferent | 0.5-2 Tage | 1-4 Wochen | 45-60 min |
Participantsdifferent | 4-12 | 6-30 Experten | 2-8 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop | Async | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Scenario Set, Strategic Implications, Robust Options | Expert Forecast, Consensus Range, Assumption Notes | Assumption map, Test backlog, Risk ranking |
Tagsno overlap | StrategyUncertaintyPlanning | ForecastingExpertsDecisionStrategy | AssumptionsRiskExperimentsValidation |
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