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Criterion
Runbook workspace showing the question, observations, and next decision.
Operations
Runbook
Paper illustration for Smoke Test.
Product Discovery
Smoke Test
Paper illustration of an assumption matrix with prioritized test cards
Decision Making
Assumption Surfacing
Purposedifferent
For recurring operational tasks or incidents, the method keeps solid action logic ready. It reduces uncertainty when time pressure, role changes, or rare situations demand fast access.When demand only needs to be roughly verified, it tests interest with minimal effort. It measures whether people would take a next step at all.Plans often contain assumptions that were never openly stated and remain dangerous precisely because of that. Assumption Surfacing makes these silent premises visible and prioritizes which of them carry the initiative or could sink it.
Complexitysame
LowLowLow
Timedifferent
20-60 min1-5 Tage45-90 min
Participantsdifferent
1-4Nutzertraffic2-8
Formatdifferent
AsyncAsyncWorkshop + async
Outputdifferent
Runbook, Checklist, Escalation PathInterest Metrics, Conversion Signal, Learning NoteAssumption List, Critical Assumptions, Learning Plan
Tagsno overlap
OperationsReliabilityDocumentation
ValidationExperimentsDemandGrowth
AssumptionsRiskDecisionDiscovery
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Often compared together

Methods with strong topical overlap with the current selection, not yet in the comparison.

Paper illustration of a calm four-quadrant Assumption Map with hypothesis cards and emphasis on important assumptions with little evidence.
Product Discovery
Assumption Mapping
Paper illustration for Fake Door Test
Product Discovery
Fake Door Test
Paper illustration of Riskiest Assumption Test with a method-specific labelled workspace.
Product Discovery
Riskiest Assumption Test