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| Criterion |  Product Discovery Riskiest Assumption Test |  Systems Thinking Future Reality Tree |  Systems Thinking Evaporating Cloud |
|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | When an idea hinges on one critical unknown, it prioritizes testing that exact piece of uncertainty first. It separates problem, assumption, solution, and evidence. The result is captured as a prioritized list of assumptions, a test plan, and a result report. | A Future Reality Tree shows how desired actions are meant to lead to a better system state. The method checks whether a path of change holds together logically before time flows into implementation. | The method makes visible why two seemingly incompatible demands arise and which assumption must be tested to resolve the conflict. |
Complexitydifferent | Medium | High | Medium |
Timedifferent | 1-2 Wochen pro Iteration | 2-4 h | 60-120 min |
Participantsdifferent | 2-6 | 3-8 | 2-8 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Workshop | Workshop |
Outputdifferent | Prioritized Assumption List, Test Plan, Results Report | Future Reality Tree, Negative Branches, Assumption List, Improved Injections | Conflict Cloud, Assumption List, Breakthrough Ideas, Next Experiments |
Tagsno overlap | ExperimentsValidationDiscoveryAssumptions | Theory of ConstraintsSystems thinkingChange | Theory of ConstraintsAssumptionsSystems thinking |
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