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Criterion
Paper illustration of a calibrated five-by-five risk matrix with response cards.
Decision Making
Risk Matrix
Paper illustration of Family Tree Analysis with its method-specific working model.
Operations
Family Tree Analysis
Paper illustration of a calm four-quadrant Assumption Map with hypothesis cards and emphasis on important assumptions with little evidence.
Product Discovery
Assumption Mapping
Purposedifferent
When a project faces many possible disruptions, it quickly becomes unclear which risks deserve attention first. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a Risk Matrix and a Top Risk List.For a series of incidents with a similar pattern, the method arranges individual events as branches of a common origin. It makes visible which conditions keep recurring.When assumptions still sit unordered in the room, it weighs uncertainty against leverage. It makes visible which hypotheses should be checked first.
Complexitydifferent
LowMediumMedium
Timedifferent
30-60 min2-4 h45-60 min
Participantsdifferent
3-102-62-8
Formatsame
Workshop + asyncWorkshop + asyncWorkshop + async
Outputdifferent
Risk Matrix, Top Risk ListFamily Tree Diagram, Pattern Notes, Systemic MeasuresAssumption map, Test backlog, Risk ranking
Tagsno overlap
RiskDecisionPrioritizationAssessment
Root causePatternsIncidentSystemic
AssumptionsRiskExperimentsValidation
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Often compared together

Methods with strong topical overlap with the current selection, not yet in the comparison.

Paper illustration of an assumption matrix with prioritized test cards
Decision Making
Assumption Surfacing
Paper illustration of MORT Analysis with its method-specific working model.
Operations
MORT Analysis
Paper illustration of Riskiest Assumption Test with a method-specific labelled workspace.
Product Discovery
Riskiest Assumption Test