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| Criterion |  Decision Making Pre-Mortem |  Decision Making Wideband Delphi |  Product Discovery Assumption Mapping |
|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | In early initiatives with many uncertainties, planning quickly turns too optimistic. A pre-mortem makes the expected failure visible in advance and sharpens the view of causes, gaps, and countermeasures. | A single opinion rarely holds up for planning when the future is genuinely uncertain. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as an Estimate Range, Assumption Log, and Expert Consensus Notes. | When assumptions still sit unordered in the room, it weighs uncertainty against leverage. It makes visible which hypotheses should be checked first. |
Complexitydifferent | Low | High | Medium |
Timedifferent | 20–45 min | 1-4 h or multiple rounds | 45-60 min |
Participantsdifferent | Small cross-functional group | 4-12 Experten | 2-8 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop | Workshop + async | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Risk list, Mitigation plan, Assumption log | Estimate Range, Assumption Log, Expert Consensus Notes | Assumption map, Test backlog, Risk ranking |
Tagsno overlap | RiskDecisionFailurePlanning | EstimationExpertsForecasting | AssumptionsRiskExperimentsValidation |
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