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Criterion
A hypothetical failure makes concrete risks, signals, and fitting mitigations visible.
Decision Making
Pre-Mortem
Paper illustration for Smoke Test.
Product Discovery
Smoke Test
Paper illustration of ICE Scoring with its method-specific working model.
Product Strategy
ICE Scoring
Purposedifferent
In early initiatives with many uncertainties, planning quickly turns too optimistic. A pre-mortem makes the expected failure visible in advance and sharpens the view of causes, gaps, and countermeasures.When demand only needs to be roughly verified, it tests interest with minimal effort. It measures whether people would take a next step at all.When ideas need sorting quickly, it condenses impact, confidence, and effort into one compact score. It connects customer value, product logic, and decision priorities. The result is captured as an ICE table and top-ideas list.
Complexitysame
LowLowLow
Timedifferent
20–45 min1-5 Tage30-60 min
Participantsdifferent
Small cross-functional groupNutzertraffic2-8
Formatdifferent
WorkshopAsyncWorkshop + async
Outputdifferent
Risk list, Mitigation plan, Assumption logInterest Metrics, Conversion Signal, Learning NoteICE Table, Top Idea List
Tagsno overlap
RiskDecisionFailurePlanning
ValidationExperimentsDemandGrowth
PrioritizationScoringGrowthDecision
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Methods with strong topical overlap with the current selection, not yet in the comparison.

Paper illustration of a calm four-quadrant Assumption Map with hypothesis cards and emphasis on important assumptions with little evidence.
Product Discovery
Assumption Mapping
Paper illustration for Fake Door Test
Product Discovery
Fake Door Test
Paper illustration of a calibrated five-by-five risk matrix with response cards.
Decision Making
Risk Matrix