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Criterion
A hypothetical failure makes concrete risks, signals, and fitting mitigations visible.
Decision Making
Pre-Mortem
Paper illustration for Smoke Test.
Product Discovery
Smoke Test
Paper illustration of Experiment Canvas with a method-specific labelled workspace.
Product Discovery
Experiment Canvas
Purposedifferent
In early initiatives with many uncertainties, planning quickly turns too optimistic. A pre-mortem makes the expected failure visible in advance and sharpens the view of causes, gaps, and countermeasures.When demand only needs to be roughly verified, it tests interest with minimal effort. It measures whether people would take a next step at all.When experiments become unreadable after the fact, it arranges hypothesis, signal, and learning goal on a single canvas. It separates problem, assumption, solution, and evidence. The result is captured as a Completed Experiment Canvas and a Success Metric.
Complexitysame
LowLowLow
Timedifferent
20–45 min1-5 Tage30-60 min
Participantsdifferent
Small cross-functional groupNutzertraffic1-5
Formatdifferent
WorkshopAsyncWorkshop + async
Outputdifferent
Risk list, Mitigation plan, Assumption logInterest Metrics, Conversion Signal, Learning NoteCompleted Experiment Canvas, Success Metric
Tagsno overlap
RiskDecisionFailurePlanning
ValidationExperimentsDemandGrowth
ExperimentsValidationDiscoveryHypothesis
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Methods with strong topical overlap with the current selection, not yet in the comparison.

Paper illustration for Fake Door Test
Product Discovery
Fake Door Test
Paper illustration of a Test Card with four fields for hypothesis, test, metric, and success threshold.
Product Discovery
Test Card
Paper illustration of a calm four-quadrant Assumption Map with hypothesis cards and emphasis on important assumptions with little evidence.
Product Discovery
Assumption Mapping