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Criterion
A hypothetical failure makes concrete risks, signals, and fitting mitigations visible.
Decision Making
Pre-Mortem
Paper illustration for Smoke Test.
Product Discovery
Smoke Test
A/B Testing workspace showing the question, observations, and next decision.
Growth
A/B Testing
Purposedifferent
In early initiatives with many uncertainties, planning quickly turns too optimistic. A pre-mortem makes the expected failure visible in advance and sharpens the view of causes, gaps, and countermeasures.When demand only needs to be roughly verified, it tests interest with minimal effort. It measures whether people would take a next step at all.When two variants compete, discussions quickly decide by taste rather than effect. A/B Testing checks behavior under controlled conditions and separates real improvement from chance or expectation effects.
Complexitydifferent
LowLowHigh
Timedifferent
20–45 min1-5 Tage1-4 Wochen
Participantsdifferent
Small cross-functional groupNutzertraffic1-6
Formatdifferent
WorkshopAsyncAsync
Outputdifferent
Risk list, Mitigation plan, Assumption logInterest Metrics, Conversion Signal, Learning NoteExperiment results, Decision log, Learning summary
Tagsno overlap
RiskDecisionFailurePlanning
ValidationExperimentsDemandGrowth
ExperimentsGrowthAnalyticsValidation
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Methods with strong topical overlap with the current selection, not yet in the comparison.

Paper illustration of a calm four-quadrant Assumption Map with hypothesis cards and emphasis on important assumptions with little evidence.
Product Discovery
Assumption Mapping
Paper illustration for Fake Door Test
Product Discovery
Fake Door Test
Paper illustration of an assumption matrix with prioritized test cards
Decision Making
Assumption Surfacing
Paper illustration for Constraint Analysis.
Decision Making
Constraint Analysis