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| Criterion |  Decision Making Pre-Mortem |  Business Strategy Scenario Planning |  Systems Thinking VUCA Scan |
|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | In early initiatives with many uncertainties, planning quickly turns too optimistic. A pre-mortem makes the expected failure visible in advance and sharpens the view of causes, gaps, and countermeasures. | Scenario Planning opens the view to several plausible futures instead of a single forecast. The method protects strategies from depending on too narrow an expected path. | The VUCA Scan helps read difficult situations more precisely. Instead of treating unclarity as generally complicated, the method separates fast change, missing knowledge, systemic entanglement, and ambiguous interpretation. |
Complexitydifferent | Low | High | Low |
Timedifferent | 20–45 min | 0.5-2 Tage | 30-90 min |
Participantsdifferent | Small cross-functional group | 4-12 | 1-10 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop | Workshop | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Risk list, Mitigation plan, Assumption log | Scenario Set, Strategic Implications, Robust Options | VUCA Map, Response Options, Signal and Learning Plan |
Tagsno overlap | RiskDecisionFailurePlanning | StrategyUncertaintyPlanning | SensemakingUncertaintyComplexityStrategyForesight |
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