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| Criterion |  Decision Making Pre-Mortem |  Decision Making PERT Estimation |  Business Strategy Scenario Planning |
|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | In early initiatives with many uncertainties, planning quickly turns too optimistic. A pre-mortem makes the expected failure visible in advance and sharpens the view of causes, gaps, and countermeasures. | On complex initiatives, a plain average tends to understate just how uncertain the outcome really is. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a PERT Estimate, Expected Value, and Risk Notes. | Scenario Planning opens the view to several plausible futures instead of a single forecast. The method protects strategies from depending on too narrow an expected path. |
Complexitydifferent | Low | Medium | High |
Timedifferent | 20–45 min | 15-45 min | 0.5-2 Tage |
Participantsdifferent | Small cross-functional group | 1-8 | 4-12 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop | Workshop + async | Workshop |
Outputdifferent | Risk list, Mitigation plan, Assumption log | PERT Estimate, Expected Value, Risk Notes | Scenario Set, Strategic Implications, Robust Options |
Tagsno overlap | RiskDecisionFailurePlanning | EstimationUncertaintyRisk | StrategyUncertaintyPlanning |
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