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Criterion
A hypothetical failure makes concrete risks, signals, and fitting mitigations visible.
Decision Making
Pre-Mortem
Paper illustration of a Lean Canvas with nine fields, notes, and one highlighted learning risk.
Product Strategy
Lean Canvas
Paper illustration of an assumption matrix with prioritized test cards
Decision Making
Assumption Surfacing
Purposedifferent
In early initiatives with many uncertainties, planning quickly turns too optimistic. A pre-mortem makes the expected failure visible in advance and sharpens the view of causes, gaps, and countermeasures.When an early product bet still has too many open points, it brings target group, problem, and assumptions into a single view. It condenses the idea so core risks become nameable.Plans often contain assumptions that were never openly stated and remain dangerous precisely because of that. Assumption Surfacing makes these silent premises visible and prioritizes which of them carry the initiative or could sink it.
Complexitydifferent
LowMediumLow
Timedifferent
20–45 min45-90 min45-90 min
Participantsdifferent
Small cross-functional group1-62-8
Formatdifferent
WorkshopWorkshop + asyncWorkshop + async
Outputdifferent
Risk list, Mitigation plan, Assumption logLean Canvas, Core Assumptions, Experiment BacklogAssumption List, Critical Assumptions, Learning Plan
Tagsno overlap
RiskDecisionFailurePlanning
StartupLeanAssumptionsBusiness model
AssumptionsRiskDecisionDiscovery
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Often compared together

Methods with strong topical overlap with the current selection, not yet in the comparison.

Paper illustration of a calm four-quadrant Assumption Map with hypothesis cards and emphasis on important assumptions with little evidence.
Product Discovery
Assumption Mapping
Paper illustration of Business Model Stress Test with its method-specific working model.
Business Strategy
Business Model Stress Test
Paper illustration for Constraint Analysis.
Decision Making
Constraint Analysis
Paper illustration of DIBB with its method-specific working model.
Product Strategy
DIBB