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| Criterion |  Decision Making Pre-Mortem |  Systems Thinking Iceberg Model |  Decision Making Assumption Surfacing |
|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | In early initiatives with many uncertainties, planning quickly turns too optimistic. A pre-mortem makes the expected failure visible in advance and sharpens the view of causes, gaps, and countermeasures. | The Iceberg Model separates visible events from patterns, structures, and mental models. This turns a single observation into a deeper understanding of why a problem keeps recurring. | Plans often contain assumptions that were never openly stated and remain dangerous precisely because of that. Assumption Surfacing makes these silent premises visible and prioritizes which of them carry the initiative or could sink it. |
Complexitysame | Low | Low | Low |
Timedifferent | 20–45 min | 30-60 min | 45-90 min |
Participantsdifferent | Small cross-functional group | 2-10 | 2-8 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop | Workshop + async | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Risk list, Mitigation plan, Assumption log | Iceberg Worksheet, Pattern Notes, Intervention Ideas | Assumption List, Critical Assumptions, Learning Plan |
Tagsno overlap | RiskDecisionFailurePlanning | Systems thinkingRoot causePatterns | AssumptionsRiskDecisionDiscovery |
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