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Criterion
A hypothetical failure makes concrete risks, signals, and fitting mitigations visible.
Decision Making
Pre-Mortem
Paper notes move from an inbox to action, project and calendar collections.
Operations
Getting Things Done
Paper illustration for Smoke Test.
Product Discovery
Smoke Test
Purposedifferent
In early initiatives with many uncertainties, planning quickly turns too optimistic. A pre-mortem makes the expected failure visible in advance and sharpens the view of causes, gaps, and countermeasures.With many open commitments and ideas in daily life, a reliable external storage system emerges. The method relieves the mind so priority and context don't have to compete in memory.When demand only needs to be roughly verified, it tests interest with minimal effort. It measures whether people would take a next step at all.
Complexitydifferent
LowMediumLow
Timedifferent
20–45 min1-2 h Setup, laufend1-5 Tage
Participantsdifferent
Small cross-functional group1Nutzertraffic
Formatdifferent
WorkshopAsyncAsync
Outputdifferent
Risk list, Mitigation plan, Assumption logAction Lists, Project List, Review RoutineInterest Metrics, Conversion Signal, Learning Note
Tagsno overlap
RiskDecisionFailurePlanning
ProductivityPlanningTasksExecution
ValidationExperimentsDemandGrowth
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Methods with strong topical overlap with the current selection, not yet in the comparison.

Paper illustration of a calm four-quadrant Assumption Map with hypothesis cards and emphasis on important assumptions with little evidence.
Product Discovery
Assumption Mapping
Paper illustration for Fake Door Test
Product Discovery
Fake Door Test
Paper illustration for Weekly Review.
Operations
Weekly Review