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Criterion
A hypothetical failure makes concrete risks, signals, and fitting mitigations visible.
Decision Making
Pre-Mortem
Paper notes move from an inbox to action, project and calendar collections.
Operations
Getting Things Done
Paper illustration of an assumption matrix with prioritized test cards
Decision Making
Assumption Surfacing
Purposedifferent
In early initiatives with many uncertainties, planning quickly turns too optimistic. A pre-mortem makes the expected failure visible in advance and sharpens the view of causes, gaps, and countermeasures.With many open commitments and ideas in daily life, a reliable external storage system emerges. The method relieves the mind so priority and context don't have to compete in memory.Plans often contain assumptions that were never openly stated and remain dangerous precisely because of that. Assumption Surfacing makes these silent premises visible and prioritizes which of them carry the initiative or could sink it.
Complexitydifferent
LowMediumLow
Timedifferent
20–45 min1-2 h Setup, laufend45-90 min
Participantsdifferent
Small cross-functional group12-8
Formatdifferent
WorkshopAsyncWorkshop + async
Outputdifferent
Risk list, Mitigation plan, Assumption logAction Lists, Project List, Review RoutineAssumption List, Critical Assumptions, Learning Plan
Tagsno overlap
RiskDecisionFailurePlanning
ProductivityPlanningTasksExecution
AssumptionsRiskDecisionDiscovery
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Often compared together

Methods with strong topical overlap with the current selection, not yet in the comparison.

Paper illustration for Weekly Review.
Operations
Weekly Review
Paper illustration for ALPEN Method
Operations
ALPEN Method
Paper illustration of a calm four-quadrant Assumption Map with hypothesis cards and emphasis on important assumptions with little evidence.
Product Discovery
Assumption Mapping
Paper illustration for Constraint Analysis.
Decision Making
Constraint Analysis