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Criterion
A hypothetical failure makes concrete risks, signals, and fitting mitigations visible.
Decision Making
Pre-Mortem
Funnel Analysis workspace showing the question, observations, and next decision.
Growth
Funnel Analysis
Paper illustration for Smoke Test.
Product Discovery
Smoke Test
Purposedifferent
In early initiatives with many uncertainties, planning quickly turns too optimistic. A pre-mortem makes the expected failure visible in advance and sharpens the view of causes, gaps, and countermeasures.When many visitors or users drop off along the way, the reason behind the number often stays hidden. Funnel Analysis exposes these transitions and makes visible exactly where the path collapses.When demand only needs to be roughly verified, it tests interest with minimal effort. It measures whether people would take a next step at all.
Complexitydifferent
LowMediumLow
Timedifferent
20–45 min1-3 h1-5 Tage
Participantsdifferent
Small cross-functional group1-5Nutzertraffic
Formatdifferent
WorkshopAsyncAsync
Outputdifferent
Risk list, Mitigation plan, Assumption logFunnel report, Drop-off analysis, Optimization hypothesesInterest Metrics, Conversion Signal, Learning Note
Tagsno overlap
RiskDecisionFailurePlanning
AnalyticsConversionGrowth
ValidationExperimentsDemandGrowth
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Methods with strong topical overlap with the current selection, not yet in the comparison.

Paper illustration of a calm four-quadrant Assumption Map with hypothesis cards and emphasis on important assumptions with little evidence.
Product Discovery
Assumption Mapping
Paper illustration for Fake Door Test
Product Discovery
Fake Door Test
Paper illustration of an assumption matrix with prioritized test cards
Decision Making
Assumption Surfacing