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| Criterion |  Decision Making Pre-Mortem |  Operations Family Tree Analysis |  Decision Making Assumption Surfacing |
|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | In early initiatives with many uncertainties, planning quickly turns too optimistic. A pre-mortem makes the expected failure visible in advance and sharpens the view of causes, gaps, and countermeasures. | For a series of incidents with a similar pattern, the method arranges individual events as branches of a common origin. It makes visible which conditions keep recurring. | Plans often contain assumptions that were never openly stated and remain dangerous precisely because of that. Assumption Surfacing makes these silent premises visible and prioritizes which of them carry the initiative or could sink it. |
Complexitydifferent | Low | Medium | Low |
Timedifferent | 20–45 min | 2-4 h | 45-90 min |
Participantsdifferent | Small cross-functional group | 2-6 | 2-8 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop | Workshop + async | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Risk list, Mitigation plan, Assumption log | Family Tree Diagram, Pattern Notes, Systemic Measures | Assumption List, Critical Assumptions, Learning Plan |
Tagsno overlap | RiskDecisionFailurePlanning | Root causePatternsIncidentSystemic | AssumptionsRiskDecisionDiscovery |
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Methods with strong topical overlap with the current selection, not yet in the comparison.
