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| Criterion |  Decision Making Pre-Mortem |  Systems Thinking Evaporating Cloud |  Product Discovery Riskiest Assumption Test |
|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | In early initiatives with many uncertainties, planning quickly turns too optimistic. A pre-mortem makes the expected failure visible in advance and sharpens the view of causes, gaps, and countermeasures. | The method makes visible why two seemingly incompatible demands arise and which assumption must be tested to resolve the conflict. | When an idea hinges on one critical unknown, it prioritizes testing that exact piece of uncertainty first. It separates problem, assumption, solution, and evidence. The result is captured as a prioritized list of assumptions, a test plan, and a result report. |
Complexitydifferent | Low | Medium | Medium |
Timedifferent | 20–45 min | 60-120 min | 1-2 Wochen pro Iteration |
Participantsdifferent | Small cross-functional group | 2-8 | 2-6 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop | Workshop | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Risk list, Mitigation plan, Assumption log | Conflict Cloud, Assumption List, Breakthrough Ideas, Next Experiments | Prioritized Assumption List, Test Plan, Results Report |
Tagsno overlap | RiskDecisionFailurePlanning | Theory of ConstraintsAssumptionsSystems thinking | ExperimentsValidationDiscoveryAssumptions |
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