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| Criterion |  Decision Making Pre-Mortem |  Systems Thinking Evaporating Cloud |  Systems Thinking Future Reality Tree |
|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | In early initiatives with many uncertainties, planning quickly turns too optimistic. A pre-mortem makes the expected failure visible in advance and sharpens the view of causes, gaps, and countermeasures. | The method makes visible why two seemingly incompatible demands arise and which assumption must be tested to resolve the conflict. | A Future Reality Tree shows how desired actions are meant to lead to a better system state. The method checks whether a path of change holds together logically before time flows into implementation. |
Complexitydifferent | Low | Medium | High |
Timedifferent | 20–45 min | 60-120 min | 2-4 h |
Participantsdifferent | Small cross-functional group | 2-8 | 3-8 |
Formatsame | Workshop | Workshop | Workshop |
Outputdifferent | Risk list, Mitigation plan, Assumption log | Conflict Cloud, Assumption List, Breakthrough Ideas, Next Experiments | Future Reality Tree, Negative Branches, Assumption List, Improved Injections |
Tagsno overlap | RiskDecisionFailurePlanning | Theory of ConstraintsAssumptionsSystems thinking | Theory of ConstraintsSystems thinkingChange |
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