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Criterion
A hypothetical failure makes concrete risks, signals, and fitting mitigations visible.
Decision Making
Pre-Mortem
Paper illustration of DIBB with its method-specific working model.
Product Strategy
DIBB
Paper illustration for Evaporating Cloud.
Systems Thinking
Evaporating Cloud
Purposedifferent
In early initiatives with many uncertainties, planning quickly turns too optimistic. A pre-mortem makes the expected failure visible in advance and sharpens the view of causes, gaps, and countermeasures.DIBB helps clarify target groups, value, goals, and priorities by making the logic behind a decision explicit. It captures results as a DIBB document, belief list, bet list, and learning report.The method makes visible why two seemingly incompatible demands arise and which assumption must be tested to resolve the conflict.
Complexitydifferent
LowLowMedium
Timedifferent
20–45 min1-2 h60-120 min
Participantsdifferent
Small cross-functional group2-82-8
Formatdifferent
WorkshopWorkshop + asyncWorkshop
Outputdifferent
Risk list, Mitigation plan, Assumption logDIBB document, Belief list, Bet list, Learning reportConflict Cloud, Assumption List, Breakthrough Ideas, Next Experiments
Tagsno overlap
RiskDecisionFailurePlanning
StrategyDecisionAssumptionsHypothesis
Theory of ConstraintsAssumptionsSystems thinking
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Often compared together

Methods with strong topical overlap with the current selection, not yet in the comparison.

Paper illustration of an assumption matrix with prioritized test cards
Decision Making
Assumption Surfacing
Paper illustration of a calm four-quadrant Assumption Map with hypothesis cards and emphasis on important assumptions with little evidence.
Product Discovery
Assumption Mapping
Paper illustration of Business Model Stress Test with its method-specific working model.
Business Strategy
Business Model Stress Test
Paper illustration for Constraint Analysis.
Decision Making
Constraint Analysis