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| Criterion |  Decision Making Pre-Mortem |  Decision Making Delphi Method |  Decision Making PERT Estimation |
|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | In early initiatives with many uncertainties, planning quickly turns too optimistic. A pre-mortem makes the expected failure visible in advance and sharpens the view of causes, gaps, and countermeasures. | When knowledge is distributed and direct dominance should be avoided, groups quickly fall under the sway of their opinion leaders. The Delphi Method gathers assessments iteratively and gradually brings expert judgments closer together. | On complex initiatives, a plain average tends to understate just how uncertain the outcome really is. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a PERT Estimate, Expected Value, and Risk Notes. |
Complexitydifferent | Low | High | Medium |
Timedifferent | 20–45 min | 1-4 Wochen | 15-45 min |
Participantsdifferent | Small cross-functional group | 6-30 Experten | 1-8 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop | Async | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Risk list, Mitigation plan, Assumption log | Expert Forecast, Consensus Range, Assumption Notes | PERT Estimate, Expected Value, Risk Notes |
Tagsno overlap | RiskDecisionFailurePlanning | ForecastingExpertsDecisionStrategy | EstimationUncertaintyRisk |
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Methods with strong topical overlap with the current selection, not yet in the comparison.
