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| Criterion |  Decision Making Pre-Mortem |  Decision Making Delphi Method |  Product Discovery Experiment Canvas |
|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | In early initiatives with many uncertainties, planning quickly turns too optimistic. A pre-mortem makes the expected failure visible in advance and sharpens the view of causes, gaps, and countermeasures. | When knowledge is distributed and direct dominance should be avoided, groups quickly fall under the sway of their opinion leaders. The Delphi Method gathers assessments iteratively and gradually brings expert judgments closer together. | When experiments become unreadable after the fact, it arranges hypothesis, signal, and learning goal on a single canvas. It separates problem, assumption, solution, and evidence. The result is captured as a Completed Experiment Canvas and a Success Metric. |
Complexitydifferent | Low | High | Low |
Timedifferent | 20–45 min | 1-4 Wochen | 30-60 min |
Participantsdifferent | Small cross-functional group | 6-30 Experten | 1-5 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop | Async | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Risk list, Mitigation plan, Assumption log | Expert Forecast, Consensus Range, Assumption Notes | Completed Experiment Canvas, Success Metric |
Tagsno overlap | RiskDecisionFailurePlanning | ForecastingExpertsDecisionStrategy | ExperimentsValidationDiscoveryHypothesis |
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