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| Criterion |  Decision Making Pre-Mortem |  Decision Making Delphi Method |  Decision Making Decision Tree |
|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | In early initiatives with many uncertainties, planning quickly turns too optimistic. A pre-mortem makes the expected failure visible in advance and sharpens the view of causes, gaps, and countermeasures. | When knowledge is distributed and direct dominance should be avoided, groups quickly fall under the sway of their opinion leaders. The Delphi Method gathers assessments iteratively and gradually brings expert judgments closer together. | For decisions with follow-on paths and dependencies, a linear comparison is often not enough. A Decision Tree shows how options branch under conditions and which consequences hang on each branch. |
Complexitydifferent | Low | High | Medium |
Timedifferent | 20–45 min | 1-4 Wochen | 30-90 min |
Participantsdifferent | Small cross-functional group | 6-30 Experten | 1-6 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop | Async | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Risk list, Mitigation plan, Assumption log | Expert Forecast, Consensus Range, Assumption Notes | Decision Tree, Option Map, Assumption List |
Tags1 shared | RiskDecisionFailurePlanning | ForecastingExpertsDecisionStrategy | DecisionTreeOptions |
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