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Criterion
A hypothetical failure makes concrete risks, signals, and fitting mitigations visible.
Decision Making
Pre-Mortem
Paper illustration of Decision Rights Mapping with its method-specific working model.
Decision Making
Decision Rights Mapping
Paper illustration for Smoke Test.
Product Discovery
Smoke Test
Purposedifferent
In early initiatives with many uncertainties, planning quickly turns too optimistic. A pre-mortem makes the expected failure visible in advance and sharpens the view of causes, gaps, and countermeasures.In organizations with many stakeholders, it often blurs who actually decides and who is merely consulted. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a Decision Rights matrix and an agreement.When demand only needs to be roughly verified, it tests interest with minimal effort. It measures whether people would take a next step at all.
Complexitydifferent
LowMediumLow
Timedifferent
20–45 min90-180 min1-5 Tage
Participantsdifferent
Small cross-functional group4-12Nutzertraffic
Formatdifferent
WorkshopWorkshopAsync
Outputdifferent
Risk list, Mitigation plan, Assumption logDecision Rights Matrix, AgreementInterest Metrics, Conversion Signal, Learning Note
Tagsno overlap
RiskDecisionFailurePlanning
DecisionGovernanceAlignmentResponsibility
ValidationExperimentsDemandGrowth
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Often compared together

Methods with strong topical overlap with the current selection, not yet in the comparison.

Paper illustration of a calm four-quadrant Assumption Map with hypothesis cards and emphasis on important assumptions with little evidence.
Product Discovery
Assumption Mapping
Paper illustration for Fake Door Test
Product Discovery
Fake Door Test