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| Criterion |  Decision Making Pre-Mortem |  Decision Making Cynefin Workshop |  Product Discovery Smoke Test |
|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | In early initiatives with many uncertainties, planning quickly turns too optimistic. A pre-mortem makes the expected failure visible in advance and sharpens the view of causes, gaps, and countermeasures. | When problems are unclear, chaotic, or only seemingly familiar, standard recipes fall short. A Cynefin Workshop sorts situations by the nature of their problem and connects them with matching action logic. | When demand only needs to be roughly verified, it tests interest with minimal effort. It measures whether people would take a next step at all. |
Complexitydifferent | Low | Medium | Low |
Timedifferent | 20–45 min | 60-180 min | 1-5 Tage |
Participantsdifferent | Small cross-functional group | 4-20 | Nutzertraffic |
Formatdifferent | Workshop | Workshop | Async |
Outputdifferent | Risk list, Mitigation plan, Assumption log | Cynefin Map, Domain-specific Actions, Sensemaking Notes | Interest Metrics, Conversion Signal, Learning Note |
Tagsno overlap | RiskDecisionFailurePlanning | ComplexitySensemakingDecision | ValidationExperimentsDemandGrowth |
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