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| Criterion |  Decision Making Pre-Mortem |  Operations Causal Factor Analysis |  Product Discovery Smoke Test |
|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | In early initiatives with many uncertainties, planning quickly turns too optimistic. A pre-mortem makes the expected failure visible in advance and sharpens the view of causes, gaps, and countermeasures. | For an event with a complicated course, the method breaks down the contributing factors along the timeline. It shows how conditions, decisions, and reactions together produce a course of events. | When demand only needs to be roughly verified, it tests interest with minimal effort. It measures whether people would take a next step at all. |
Complexitydifferent | Low | High | Low |
Timedifferent | 20–45 min | 2-6 h | 1-5 Tage |
Participantsdifferent | Small cross-functional group | 3-10 | Nutzertraffic |
Formatdifferent | Workshop | Workshop + async | Async |
Outputdifferent | Risk list, Mitigation plan, Assumption log | Event Timeline, Causal Factor Chart, Cause List, Corrective Actions | Interest Metrics, Conversion Signal, Learning Note |
Tagsno overlap | RiskDecisionFailurePlanning | CausalityIncidentRoot causeTimeline | ValidationExperimentsDemandGrowth |
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