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| Criterion |  Decision Making Pre-Mortem |  Systems Thinking Behavior Over Time Graph |  Product Discovery Smoke Test |
|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | In early initiatives with many uncertainties, planning quickly turns too optimistic. A pre-mortem makes the expected failure visible in advance and sharpens the view of causes, gaps, and countermeasures. | A Behavior Over Time Graph shows how a metric or observation develops over time. The method makes trends, breaks, and recurring patterns visible that get lost in snapshots. | When demand only needs to be roughly verified, it tests interest with minimal effort. It measures whether people would take a next step at all. |
Complexitysame | Low | Low | Low |
Timedifferent | 20–45 min | 20-45 min | 1-5 Tage |
Participantsdifferent | Small cross-functional group | 1-10 | Nutzertraffic |
Formatdifferent | Workshop | Workshop + async | Async |
Outputdifferent | Risk list, Mitigation plan, Assumption log | Behavior Over Time Graph, Trend Hypotheses, Key Events | Interest Metrics, Conversion Signal, Learning Note |
Tagsno overlap | RiskDecisionFailurePlanning | Systems thinkingPatternsDynamics | ValidationExperimentsDemandGrowth |
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