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| Criterion |  Decision Making PERT Estimation |  Decision Making Wideband Delphi |  Business Strategy Value Chain Analysis |
|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | On complex initiatives, a plain average tends to understate just how uncertain the outcome really is. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a PERT Estimate, Expected Value, and Risk Notes. | A single opinion rarely holds up for planning when the future is genuinely uncertain. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as an Estimate Range, Assumption Log, and Expert Consensus Notes. | Value Chain Analysis shows where value is created, costs accrue, and differentiation becomes possible along the process. It compares strengths, risks, market logic, and courses of action. The result is captured as a value-chain map and lever list. |
Complexitydifferent | Medium | High | High |
Timedifferent | 15-45 min | 1-4 h or multiple rounds | Half day |
Participantsdifferent | 1-8 | 4-12 Experten | 3-8 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop |
Outputdifferent | PERT Estimate, Expected Value, Risk Notes | Estimate Range, Assumption Log, Expert Consensus Notes | Value Chain Map, Lever List |
Tagsno overlap | EstimationUncertaintyRisk | EstimationExpertsForecasting | StrategyBusiness modelDiagnosisAnalysis |
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