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| Criterion |  Decision Making PERT Estimation |  Decision Making Wideband Delphi |  Decision Making Red Teaming |
|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | On complex initiatives, a plain average tends to understate just how uncertain the outcome really is. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a PERT Estimate, Expected Value, and Risk Notes. | A single opinion rarely holds up for planning when the future is genuinely uncertain. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as an Estimate Range, Assumption Log, and Expert Consensus Notes. | For strategic decisions with high reach, agreement and gut feeling are often not enough. Red teaming brings deliberate opposition into the situation and tests where a plan breaks under real counterarguments. |
Complexitydifferent | Medium | High | High |
Timedifferent | 15-45 min | 1-4 h or multiple rounds | 1-4 h |
Participantsdifferent | 1-8 | 4-12 Experten | 3-8 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop |
Outputdifferent | PERT Estimate, Expected Value, Risk Notes | Estimate Range, Assumption Log, Expert Consensus Notes | Challenge Findings, Risk Register, Mitigation Plan |
Tagsno overlap | EstimationUncertaintyRisk | EstimationExpertsForecasting | RiskDecisionSensemaking |
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