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| Criterion |  Decision Making PERT Estimation |  Business Strategy Scenario Planning |  Decision Making Pre-Mortem |
|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | On complex initiatives, a plain average tends to understate just how uncertain the outcome really is. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a PERT Estimate, Expected Value, and Risk Notes. | Scenario Planning opens the view to several plausible futures instead of a single forecast. The method protects strategies from depending on too narrow an expected path. | In early initiatives with many uncertainties, planning quickly turns too optimistic. A pre-mortem makes the expected failure visible in advance and sharpens the view of causes, gaps, and countermeasures. |
Complexitydifferent | Medium | High | Low |
Timedifferent | 15-45 min | 0.5-2 Tage | 20–45 min |
Participantsdifferent | 1-8 | 4-12 | Small cross-functional group |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Workshop | Workshop |
Outputdifferent | PERT Estimate, Expected Value, Risk Notes | Scenario Set, Strategic Implications, Robust Options | Risk list, Mitigation plan, Assumption log |
Tagsno overlap | EstimationUncertaintyRisk | StrategyUncertaintyPlanning | RiskDecisionFailurePlanning |
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