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Criterion
Paper illustration for PERT Estimation.
Decision Making
PERT Estimation
Scenario Planning method illustration showing its working structure
Business Strategy
Scenario Planning
Anonymous individual judgments pass through feedback loops to form a distribution.
Decision Making
Delphi Method
Purposedifferent
On complex initiatives, a plain average tends to understate just how uncertain the outcome really is. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a PERT Estimate, Expected Value, and Risk Notes.Scenario Planning opens the view to several plausible futures instead of a single forecast. The method protects strategies from depending on too narrow an expected path.When knowledge is distributed and direct dominance should be avoided, groups quickly fall under the sway of their opinion leaders. The Delphi Method gathers assessments iteratively and gradually brings expert judgments closer together.
Complexitydifferent
MediumHighHigh
Timedifferent
15-45 min0.5-2 Tage1-4 Wochen
Participantsdifferent
1-84-126-30 Experten
Formatdifferent
Workshop + asyncWorkshopAsync
Outputdifferent
PERT Estimate, Expected Value, Risk NotesScenario Set, Strategic Implications, Robust OptionsExpert Forecast, Consensus Range, Assumption Notes
Tagsno overlap
EstimationUncertaintyRisk
StrategyUncertaintyPlanning
ForecastingExpertsDecisionStrategy
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A hypothetical failure makes concrete risks, signals, and fitting mitigations visible.
Decision Making
Pre-Mortem
Paper illustration for Three-Point Estimation.
Decision Making
Three-Point Estimation
Paper illustration for Wideband Delphi.
Decision Making
Wideband Delphi
Paper illustration of an assumption matrix with prioritized test cards
Decision Making
Assumption Surfacing