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Criterion
Paper illustration for PERT Estimation.
Decision Making
PERT Estimation
Paper board with the four ROAM fields Resolved, Owned, Accepted, and Mitigated.
Agile
ROAM Board
Paper illustration of an assumption matrix with prioritized test cards
Decision Making
Assumption Surfacing
Purposedifferent
On complex initiatives, a plain average tends to understate just how uncertain the outcome really is. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a PERT Estimate, Expected Value, and Risk Notes.When work needs to move between different states or columns, it makes that movement and its handoffs legible. It sorts work by value, risk, and delivery ability. The result is captured as a ROAM Board and an Owner List.Plans often contain assumptions that were never openly stated and remain dangerous precisely because of that. Assumption Surfacing makes these silent premises visible and prioritizes which of them carry the initiative or could sink it.
Complexitydifferent
MediumLowLow
Timedifferent
15-45 min20-40 min initial, dann laufend45-90 min
Participantsdifferent
1-83-152-8
Formatsame
Workshop + asyncWorkshop + asyncWorkshop + async
Outputdifferent
PERT Estimate, Expected Value, Risk NotesROAM Board, Owner ListAssumption List, Critical Assumptions, Learning Plan
Tags1 shared
EstimationUncertaintyRisk
RiskAgileTrackingAlignment
AssumptionsRiskDecisionDiscovery
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Often compared together

Methods with strong topical overlap with the current selection, not yet in the comparison.

Paper illustration of a calm four-quadrant Assumption Map with hypothesis cards and emphasis on important assumptions with little evidence.
Product Discovery
Assumption Mapping
Paper illustration of Decision Rights Mapping with its method-specific working model.
Decision Making
Decision Rights Mapping
Paper illustration of DIBB with its method-specific working model.
Product Strategy
DIBB