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| Criterion |  Decision Making PERT Estimation |  Decision Making Red Teaming |  Knowledge Modeling IBIS |
|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | On complex initiatives, a plain average tends to understate just how uncertain the outcome really is. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a PERT Estimate, Expected Value, and Risk Notes. | For strategic decisions with high reach, agreement and gut feeling are often not enough. Red teaming brings deliberate opposition into the situation and tests where a plan breaks under real counterarguments. | IBIS structures thinking about complex questions as a sequence of issues, ideas, and arguments. The method keeps discussions open without forcing them into premature consensus. |
Complexitydifferent | Medium | High | Medium |
Timedifferent | 15-45 min | 1-4 h | 1-3 h |
Participantsdifferent | 1-8 | 3-8 | 2-8 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Workshop | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | PERT Estimate, Expected Value, Risk Notes | Challenge Findings, Risk Register, Mitigation Plan | Issue Map, Positions, Argument Notes |
Tagsno overlap | EstimationUncertaintyRisk | RiskDecisionSensemaking | RationaleKnowledgeDecision |
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