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| Criterion |  Decision Making PERT Estimation |  Decision Making Pre-Mortem |  Product Discovery Smoke Test |
|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | On complex initiatives, a plain average tends to understate just how uncertain the outcome really is. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a PERT Estimate, Expected Value, and Risk Notes. | In early initiatives with many uncertainties, planning quickly turns too optimistic. A pre-mortem makes the expected failure visible in advance and sharpens the view of causes, gaps, and countermeasures. | When demand only needs to be roughly verified, it tests interest with minimal effort. It measures whether people would take a next step at all. |
Complexitydifferent | Medium | Low | Low |
Timedifferent | 15-45 min | 20–45 min | 1-5 Tage |
Participantsdifferent | 1-8 | Small cross-functional group | Nutzertraffic |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Workshop | Async |
Outputdifferent | PERT Estimate, Expected Value, Risk Notes | Risk list, Mitigation plan, Assumption log | Interest Metrics, Conversion Signal, Learning Note |
Tagsno overlap | EstimationUncertaintyRisk | RiskDecisionFailurePlanning | ValidationExperimentsDemandGrowth |
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