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| Criterion |  Decision Making PERT Estimation |  Decision Making Pre-Mortem |  Product Discovery Assumption Mapping |
|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | On complex initiatives, a plain average tends to understate just how uncertain the outcome really is. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a PERT Estimate, Expected Value, and Risk Notes. | In early initiatives with many uncertainties, planning quickly turns too optimistic. A pre-mortem makes the expected failure visible in advance and sharpens the view of causes, gaps, and countermeasures. | When assumptions still sit unordered in the room, it weighs uncertainty against leverage. It makes visible which hypotheses should be checked first. |
Complexitydifferent | Medium | Low | Medium |
Timedifferent | 15-45 min | 20–45 min | 45-60 min |
Participantsdifferent | 1-8 | Small cross-functional group | 2-8 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Workshop | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | PERT Estimate, Expected Value, Risk Notes | Risk list, Mitigation plan, Assumption log | Assumption map, Test backlog, Risk ranking |
Tags1 shared | EstimationUncertaintyRisk | RiskDecisionFailurePlanning | AssumptionsRiskExperimentsValidation |
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