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| Criterion |  Decision Making PERT Estimation |  Innovation Lean Startup |  Product Discovery Smoke Test |
|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | On complex initiatives, a plain average tends to understate just how uncertain the outcome really is. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a PERT Estimate, Expected Value, and Risk Notes. | For uncertain business assumptions, the method forces the idea into contact with real market reactions early. It separates wishful picture, assumption, and observable behavior, so that learning becomes faster than planning. This translates uncertainty into measurable insight. | When demand only needs to be roughly verified, it tests interest with minimal effort. It measures whether people would take a next step at all. |
Complexitydifferent | Medium | Medium | Low |
Timedifferent | 15-45 min | Wochen bis Monate je Lernzyklus | 1-5 Tage |
Participantsdifferent | 1-8 | 2-8 | Nutzertraffic |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Async |
Outputdifferent | PERT Estimate, Expected Value, Risk Notes | Hypothesis list, MVPs, Learning reports, Pivot or persevere decision | Interest Metrics, Conversion Signal, Learning Note |
Tagsno overlap | EstimationUncertaintyRisk | LeanStartupValidationMVP | ValidationExperimentsDemandGrowth |
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