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| Criterion |  Decision Making PERT Estimation |  Product Discovery Hypothesis Prioritization Canvas |  Product Discovery Riskiest Assumption Test |
|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | On complex initiatives, a plain average tends to understate just how uncertain the outcome really is. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a PERT Estimate, Expected Value, and Risk Notes. | When many hypotheses compete for attention, it brings order to their learning sequence and importance. It separates problem, assumption, solution, and evidence. The result is captured as a prioritization canvas and a hypothesis backlog. | When an idea hinges on one critical unknown, it prioritizes testing that exact piece of uncertainty first. It separates problem, assumption, solution, and evidence. The result is captured as a prioritized list of assumptions, a test plan, and a result report. |
Complexitysame | Medium | Medium | Medium |
Timedifferent | 15-45 min | 60-90 min | 1-2 Wochen pro Iteration |
Participantsdifferent | 1-8 | 3-8 | 2-6 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Workshop | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | PERT Estimate, Expected Value, Risk Notes | Prioritization Canvas, Hypothesis Backlog | Prioritized Assumption List, Test Plan, Results Report |
Tagsno overlap | EstimationUncertaintyRisk | ExperimentsPrioritizationDiscoveryHypothesis | ExperimentsValidationDiscoveryAssumptions |
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Methods with strong topical overlap with the current selection, not yet in the comparison.
